Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
